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Week 5

2026 season. 15 games, Thursday, Oct 8 to Monday, Oct 12.

Picks and keys published Tuesday, October 6, 6:23 PM.

Times in Eastern Time.

The model this season: No graded games yet this season. Pick history

Thursday, October 8

8:15 PMAT&T Stadium, Arlington

Tampa Bay Buccaneers0-4
Dallas Cowboys2-2
Pick
Cowboys 66%
Against the spread
Buccaneers +9.5
Projected score
Buccaneers 21, Cowboys 26
  • The model picks the Cowboys to win, giving them a 66% probability against 34% for the Buccaneers.
  • With the line at Cowboys -9.5, the model favors the Buccaneers against the spread, projecting Dallas to win by 4.5 points.
  • The Buccaneers arrive 0-4 on an L4 streak, while the Cowboys are 2-2 after beating the Texans 34-30.
  • The model projects a 26-21 Cowboys score; DeMarvion Overshown and Drew Shelton are listed as Questionable on the injury report.
Game details

Sunday, October 11

9:30 AMTottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Philadelphia Eagles2-2
Jacksonville Jaguars3-1
Pick
Jaguars 69%
Against the spread
Jaguars −2.5
Projected score
Eagles 19, Jaguars 25
  • The model picks the Jaguars with a 69% chance to win against the Eagles, who have 31%.
  • With the line at Jaguars -2.5, the model also leans toward the Jaguars to cover the spread.
  • The Jaguars arrive at 3-1 with a 2-game winning streak, having scored 104 points and allowed 53.
  • The Eagles, at 2-2 with 2 straight losses, list six players as Questionable on the injury report, including DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
Game details

1:00 PMNissan Stadium, Nashville

Houston Texans0-4
Tennessee Titans0-4
Pick
Texans 64%
Against the spread
Titans +6.5
Projected score
Texans 21, Titans 17
  • The model picks the Texans with a 64% win probability, compared with 36% for the Titans.
  • With the Texans favored by 6.5 points, the model likes the Titans against the spread, expecting a margin of 3.9 points.
  • Both teams arrive at 0-4 on an L4 streak, with the Texans at 11% playoff odds and the Titans at 1%.
  • The projected score is Texans 21, Titans 17 at Nissan Stadium.
Game details

1:00 PMHard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

Cincinnati Bengals2-2
Miami Dolphins0-4
Pick
Bengals 59%
Against the spread
Dolphins +8.5
Projected score
Bengals 25, Dolphins 22
  • The model picks the Bengals to win with a 59% probability, against 41% for the Dolphins, with a projected score of 25-22.
  • Against the spread, the model leans toward the Dolphins, as the Bengals are favored by 8.5 points and the model expects a margin of 2.6.
  • The Dolphins arrive at 0-4 on an L4 streak, having scored 46 points while allowing 101.
  • The Bengals, at 2-2 on an L2 streak, have a 46% playoff probability in the model, compared with 2% for the Dolphins.
Game details

1:00 PMGillette Stadium, Foxborough

Las Vegas Raiders3-1
New England Patriots2-2
Pick
Patriots 70%
Against the spread
Patriots −3.5
Projected score
Raiders 19, Patriots 25
  • The model picks the Patriots with a 70% chance to beat the Raiders in Foxborough.
  • With the Patriots favored by 3.5 points, the model also leans toward the Patriots to cover the spread.
  • The Raiders arrive at 3-1 with 115 points scored, but they lost 27-30 to the Chiefs in their latest game.
  • The Patriots list six Questionable players on the injury report, including Christian Barmore and Christian Gonzalez; the model projects a 25-19 final.
Game details

1:00 PMCaesars Superdome, New Orleans

Minnesota Vikings4-0
New Orleans Saints1-3
Pick
Vikings 68%
Against the spread
Vikings −2
Projected score
Vikings 25, Saints 20
  • The model picks the Vikings to win, giving them a 68% probability against 32% for the Saints.
  • Against the spread, the model leans toward the Vikings, who are favored by 2.0 points.
  • The Vikings arrive at 4-0 with 4 straight wins, while the Saints are 1-3 and have lost 2 in a row.
  • The model projects a 25-20 Vikings win, and Minnesota has a 92% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Game details

1:00 PMMetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

Cleveland Browns3-1
New York Jets1-3
Pick
Browns 55%
Against the spread
Browns +2
Projected score
Browns 20, Jets 19
  • The model favors the Browns with a 55% win probability, compared with 45% for the Jets.
  • Against the spread, where the Jets are favored by 2.0 points, the model leans toward the Browns.
  • The Browns arrive at 3-1 with a W3 streak, while the Jets sit at 1-3 on an L3 streak.
  • The model projects a 20-19 score in favor of the Browns, who have a 55% playoff probability.
Game details

1:00 PMAcrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh

Indianapolis Colts2-2
Pittsburgh Steelers2-2
Pick
Steelers 59%
Against the spread
Steelers +5.5
Projected score
Colts 21, Steelers 24
  • The model picks the Steelers to win with a 59% probability, compared with 41% for the Colts, at Acrisure Stadium.
  • Against the spread, the model leans toward the Steelers, even though the Colts are favored by 5.5 points.
  • Both teams enter at 2-2: the Colts bring a two-game winning streak, while the Steelers are coming off a 24-27 loss to the Browns.
  • The model projects a 24-21 score in favor of the Steelers, who are 2-0 at home this season.
Game details

1:00 PMNorthwest Stadium, Landover

New York Giants3-1
Washington Commanders1-3
Pick
Giants 51%
Against the spread
Giants +2.5
Projected score
Giants 22, Commanders 21
  • The model leans toward the Giants with a 51% chance to win, against 49% for the Commanders, in a very close matchup.
  • Against the spread, with the Commanders favored by 2.5 points, the model prefers the Giants.
  • Jayden Daniels is listed as Questionable with an elbow injury on the Commanders' report, whose listed quarterback is Athan Kaliakmanis.
  • The Giants arrive at 3-1 with a 2-game winning streak while the Commanders are 1-3, and the model projects a 22-21 Giants win.
Game details

1:00 PMLambeau Field, Green Bay

Chicago Bears3-1
Green Bay Packers2-2
Pick
Bears 57%
Against the spread
Bears +2.5
Projected score
Bears 23, Packers 21
  • The model leans toward the Bears with a 57% win probability, compared with 43% for the Packers.
  • The Packers are 2.5-point favorites on the line, but the model sees the Bears covering that spread.
  • The Bears arrive at 3-1 with a W2 streak, while the Packers are 2-2 with a W1 streak.
  • The Bears have scored 112 points and allowed 65, while the Packers have 73 points for and 105 against.
Game details

4:05 PMSoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Denver Broncos2-2
Los Angeles Chargers0-4
Pick
Broncos 62%
Against the spread
Chargers +5.5
Projected score
Broncos 23, Chargers 20
  • The model picks the Broncos with a 62% win probability, compared with 38% for the Chargers.
  • With the Broncos favored by 5.5 points on the line, the model sees the Chargers as the side to cover the spread.
  • The Chargers arrive 0-4 on an L4 streak, with 67 points scored and 106 allowed.
  • The Broncos, at 2-2 with a 60% playoff probability, are projected to win 23-20.
Game details

4:25 PMState Farm Stadium, Glendale

Detroit Lions2-2
Arizona Cardinals1-3
Pick
Lions 58%
Against the spread
Cardinals +5.5
Projected score
Lions 27, Cardinals 25
  • The model picks the Lions to win with a 58% probability, compared with 42% for the Cardinals.
  • With the Lions favored by 5.5 points, the model leans toward the Cardinals to cover the spread.
  • The Cardinals arrive at 1-3 with 3 straight losses, while the Lions are 2-2 after losing their last game.
  • The model projects a 27-25 Lions win, and gives Detroit a 37% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Game details

4:25 PMLumen Field, Seattle

San Francisco 49ers4-0
Seattle Seahawks3-1
Pick
Seahawks 60%
Against the spread
49ers +3.5
Projected score
49ers 22, Seahawks 25
  • The model leans toward the Seahawks with a 60% win probability to 40% for the 49ers, and projects a score of 25 to 22.
  • Against the spread, the model sides with the 49ers: Seattle is favored by 3.5 points, but the model expects a win by 2.9.
  • The 49ers arrive 4-0 on a W4 streak, having scored 122 points and allowed 64.
  • The Seahawks, at 3-1, are 2-0 at home, and Nick Bosa is listed as Questionable on the 49ers' injury report.
Game details

8:20 PMMercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Baltimore Ravens3-1
Atlanta Falcons2-2
Pick
Falcons 54%
Against the spread
Ravens +3.5
Projected score
Ravens 21, Falcons 22
  • The model picks the Falcons to win with a 54% probability, against 46% for the Ravens, with a projected score of 22-21.
  • Against the line, where the Falcons are favored by 3.5 points, the model leans toward the Ravens.
  • Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is listed as Questionable on the injury report with an ankle injury.
  • Both teams arrive on a streak of 2 wins: the Falcons are 2-2 and the Ravens 3-1, with 70% playoff odds.
Game details

Monday, October 12

8:15 PMSoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Buffalo Bills3-1
Los Angeles Rams2-2
Pick
Rams 52%
Against the spread
Bills +3
Projected score
Bills 27, Rams 28
  • The model picks the Rams to win with a 52% probability, against 48% for the Bills, in a very close matchup at SoFi Stadium.
  • With the Rams favored by 2.5 points, the model leans toward the Bills to cover the spread.
  • The Bills arrive at 3-1 with a streak of L1; the Rams are 2-2 after beating the Eagles 24-20.
  • The model projects a 28-27 score in favor of the Rams, with the Bills at 84% playoff odds.
Game details